there are 5 people palying spin the bottle and out of the first 3 spins it has landed on Marlene, what is the probability of this sequence of outcomes occurring by chance?

Title: Probability Analysis of the Sequence of Outcomes in Spin the Bottle Game

Introduction:

The concept of probability is a fundamental aspect of mathematics, statistics, and various fields of study. In this assignment, we will determine the probability of the specific sequence of outcomes occurring in a game of Spin the Bottle, given that the bottle has landed on Marlene for the first three spins. The analysis will delve into the underlying assumptions, theoretical foundations, and calculations required to determine the probability of such occurrences by chance.

Assumptions:

To analyze the probability of the sequence of outcomes in Spin the Bottle, we need to make certain assumptions. We assume that the bottle is spun randomly and that the game involves five individuals, including Marlene. Furthermore, we assume that each spin is independent of the previous result, meaning that the outcome of one spin does not impact the outcome of subsequent spins. Lastly, we assume that the bottle can only land on one person at a time.

Calculating the Probability:

To calculate the probability of landing on Marlene for three consecutive spins, we need to consider the total number of possible outcomes and the number of favorable outcomes. Let’s break down the calculations step by step.

1. Total number of outcomes:

In each spin of the bottle, there are five possible outcomes – one for each person playing the game. Since the bottle is spun three times, the total number of outcomes is given by:

Total number of outcomes = 5 x 5 x 5 = 125

2. Number of favorable outcomes:

Given that Marlene has been landed upon for the first three spins, the number of favorable outcomes is decreased for each subsequent spin. Let us calculate the number of favorable outcomes for each spin:

First spin: Marlene is one of the five individuals playing, so there is only one favorable outcome.

Number of favorable outcomes for the first spin = 1

Second spin: Since Marlene was landed upon in the first spin, she is no longer a possible outcome for the second spin. Out of the remaining four individuals playing, there is now only one favorable outcome.

Number of favorable outcomes for the second spin = 1

Third spin: Similarly, since Marlene was landed upon in both the first and second spins, she is no longer a possible outcome for the third spin. Out of the remaining three players, there is still only one favorable outcome.

Number of favorable outcomes for the third spin = 1

3. Probability calculation:

To calculate the probability, we divide the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of outcomes:

Probability of the sequence = Number of favorable outcomes / Total number of outcomes

Substituting the values obtained earlier:

Probability of the sequence = (1 x 1 x 1) / 125

Probability of the sequence = 1 / 125

Simplifying the expression:

Probability of the sequence = 0.008

Interpretation:

The probability of the specific sequence of outcomes occurring, where Marlene is landed upon for the first three spins, is 0.008 or 0.8%.

Conclusion:

In this analysis, we calculated the probability of a specific sequence of outcomes occurring in a game of Spin the Bottle, where Marlene is landed upon for the first three spins. By considering the number of favorable outcomes and the total number of outcomes, we determined that the probability of such a sequence occurring by chance is 0.008 or 0.8%. This probability is relatively low, indicating that the specific sequence of events is unlikely to occur randomly.